Read all the election coverage. Compared with its Democratic rivals, the GOP has seen a net gain of almost 88,000 voters since 2010. Most of that - 55,000 - is actually in the form of Democratic losses.
The Republican Party has added about 32,000 in the past two years, with independents increasing by more than 5,000 and total registration actually decreasing by more than 17,000.
These decades-long trends have left Democrats with a narrow advantage in registration but Republicans with momentum and control of state government. For the first time, Republicans have drawn the state's legislative districts, a perquisite of power that allowed them to compound their advantages and the Democrats' woes.
Republicans increased their share of the voters in 82 of 101 House and 37 of 48 Senate districts. Republicans now outnumber Democrats in more than half the Senate districts, and they picked up two Senate seats this year simply by moving them.
The confluence of uneven population growth, voting trends and redistricting is likely to move two House seats - and maybe more - to the Republican column in the general election, as well.
Democrats have an outside chance to gain a Senate seat and maybe a few House seats, but just holding their own could be a struggle.
The biggest Senate changes were in Districts 33 and 43, which were moved entirely, and District 17, a once-solid Democratic bailiwick held by former Gov. Brad Henry.
District 33 went from midtown Tulsa to Broken Arrow, and from a competitive Democrat-leaning seat to safe Republican.
The majority of District 17, which once mostly represented Pottawatomie County, is now in Oklahoma County.
Both seats were held by Democrats last session. No Democrat bothered filing for them this year.
A Democrat is on the ballot in District 43 - shipped from south Oklahoma City to McLain, Comanche and Stephens counties - and the registration is slightly more Democratic, but recent voting patterns favor Republicans.
Republicans also have hopes for SD 3. The district formerly comprised Cherokee, Adair and northern Sequoyah counties but now takes in less than half of Cherokee County and none of Sequoyah County while stretching north to Grove and west in a narrow neck past Inola.
The district is still 55 percent Democrat, but that's 10 points less than two years ago.
Similar forces are likely to help move - literally - the two House seats. HD 20, currently held by term-limited Paul Roan, is going from a 79 percent Democrat district in south central Oklahoma to a virtually even one that runs from northwest of Newcastle to Wynnewood.
Similarly, HD 60 in far western Oklahoma was shifted eastward to run from Oklahoma City's western suburbs to near Weatherford, with a net gain of 6,700 for Republicans.
Northeastern Oklahoma districts suffered considerably less change. The biggest was in HD 66, which traded a big share of Democratic votes for Republicans in the south half of Sand Springs.
Redistricting and voter shifts have planted some time bombs, too. SD 2, held by Democratic Leader Sean Burrage, has seen a net shift of 8,100 votes in the past two years, moving it from Democratic by 8 percentage points to Republican by the same margin.
Another seat to watch over the coming years may be HD 16, for years a rural, safely Democratic seat in the wide open country south of Tulsa between Okmulgee and Muskogee.
It will probably remain Democratic for a while, but its boundaries have been redrawn so that it loses Henryetta and parts of Okmulgee County and picks up precincts in southeast Tulsa and southwest Wagoner counties, growing areas with strong Republican leanings.
The good news for Democrats is that they still outnumber Republicans in 56 of 101 House districts, and that the 34 House and 13 Senate districts with general elections this fall are disproportionately Democratic.
The trick for those Democratic candidates, and their party's leadership, is to get Democrats to vote that way.
Original Print Headline: GOP gets a boost from redrawing of districts
Randy Krehbiel 918-581-8365
randy.krehbiel@tulsaworld.com
Source: http://www.tulsaworld.com/site/articlepath.aspx?articleid=20120709_16_A1_Oklaho538532&rss_lnk=16
florida state football florida state football ben breedlove kid cudi ben breedlove matt barnes hcm loretta lynn
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.